There's something interesting brewing with Iona, and it has everything to do with the Gaels' recent success against the number. Dating back to last season, Iona has covered six of its last seven games, and the Gaels have opened their new campaign with two victories that will raise eyebrows. First came a 56-55 upset of Vermont as a 1.5-point underdog, followed by a 23-point demolition of NJIT in a game where Iona was laying just 9.5 points. That's some serious overperformance against market expectations, but it begs the question: are we now paying a premium for Iona's recent success while getting a discount on the Red Storm? Yes, you read that right.
The Johnnies opened their season with a 15-point victory over Monmouth which sounds perfectly respectable until you consider they were laying a whopping 27.5 points. St. John's was never seriously threatened, but the failure to cover such a substantial number creates a very different perception compared with Iona's impressive start. Put those contrasting results together and we're looking at a situation where the market could offer St. John's at a reduced price. The Gaels have been rewarding their backers, while the Johnnies have already disappointed theirs. That is reflected in this price, even if it appears otherwise. St. John is undoubtedly the superior outfit, and I'm expecting the Johnnies to remind everyone of that in convincing fashion.
Iona Gaels vs St. John's Red Storm prediction: St. John's -26.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -27.
