We will have a battle of service academies when the Navy Midshipmen travel out west to play the Air Force Falcons on Saturday. This will be the 59th meeting between the two programs since 1960, and Air Force, currently the favorite in the upcoming matchup, owns the 34-24 edge since then. When these teams met last season, it was a barn-burner, as Navy pulled it out, 34-31, as a -13.5 favorite. It was the Blake Horvath show, as the Navy quarterback was 20-of-26 for 339 yards and three passing touchdowns to go along with 17 carries for 130 yards and another score. Eli Heidenreich was his main target, reeling in all three touchdowns on eight receptions for 243 yards. Unfortunately for the Midshipmen, neither are on the team anymore.
For Air Force, quarterback Liam Szarka had a great game in his own right, completing 11 of his 19 passes for 212 yards and two touchdowns. He also ran 25 times for 152 yards and two scores. Luckily for the Falcons, he’s back in the mix this year.
It’s a massive advantage for the Falcons to have a returning quarterback in this game. He knows Navy’s exact defensive tendencies, and that’s absolutely not what the Midshipmen want given their defense already ranks 112th in PPA per play, 127th in third-down conversion rate and 129th in passing success rate. This unit has already surrendered a handful of deep touchdowns of more than 30 yards – multiple in each FBS game thus far. Plus, Navy has not taken good care of the ball, sitting 126th in turnover margin per game (-1.5).
Now factor in the travel spot. Although Navy had a bye in Week 3, this will be their third straight road game after traveling to FAU and UAB. This isn’t just a trip down the east coast, though. It’s a flight out west to play in altitude, where Navy has historically struggled most in this head-to-head series.
Air Force has the quarterback advantage and the travel advantage, while the Falcons are playing with revenge on their mind. Remember, this Falcons defense is top-three in returning production, so they remember the 512 yards Horvath led the Midshipmen to against them. Air Force has had some defensive struggles this year, but they’re 33rd in success rate allowed outside of garbage time, while they’re third nationally in non-garbage-time scoring opportunities allowed. Give me the Falcons to win and cover.
Navy vs Air Force prediction: Air Force Falcons -3 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -4.
