It's easy to look at the records here and make inferences. Air Force is 5-2, while UConn sits at 4-3. But those records don't tell the whole story. The irony is that Connecticut could easily be 6-1. The Huskies lost to Syracuse on a two-point conversion in overtime and suffered a narrow field-goal defeat on the road at Miami Ohio. Flip those two results, and suddenly we're looking at a 6-1 UConn team with a P4 win to its credit.
Meanwhile, Air Force's 5-2 record could just as easily be 3-4. The Falcons narrowly defeated Nevada and Navy by a combined 8 points. Had those close victories gone the other way, would Air Force really be favored here? I doubt it. There's nothing the Falcons have accomplished this season that convinces me they're better than Connecticut. Their best victory came against UNLV at home in a potential letdown spot for the Rebels. UConn, meanwhile, just decimated a UMass team that got off to a hot start. Most recently, the Fly Guys got handled on the road at Wyoming last Friday night. So there are some momentum mechanics in play here too. Moreover, the Huskies have also faced two Power Four opponents, while Air Force's toughest assignments on paper have been North Dakota State and UNLV. That's a considerable difference in opposition. The records flatter Air Force and undersell Connecticut. But, I think that all comes full circle in Colorado Springs. I'm taking the Huskies outright.
UConn Huskies vs. Air Force Falcons prediction: UConn +133 (ML) available at time of publishing. Playable to +125.
