The South Carolina Gamecocks will hit the road for the first time this season when they travel to Tuscaloosa to play the Alabama Crimson Tide. It was a disappointing Week 3 for Cocky, as they blew a 16-0 lead to Kamario Taylor and the Mississippi State Bulldogs, increasing the temperature on Shane Beamer’s already-hot seat in Columbia. Meanwhile, Alabama’s offense has been rolling through three games, scoring at least 45 points all three weeks, with two of those games being against power-conference opponents.
Pace of play doesn’t really condone an over here, but there is a strong case for points in other facets. Both offenses have shown an ability to end possessions with points once they get into scoring range, as the Gamecocks and the Tide are both top-35 in points per opportunity outside of garbage time, averaging more than 4.75 points on those opportunities. Moreover, both defenses have been weak at finishing drives when their opponents get inside the 40-yard line. In fact, South Carolina is 117th in points allowed per opposing scoring opportunity, while Alabama is 126th, both surrendering an average of at least 4.25 points on these opportunities.
Explosiveness is also a big factor here; South Carolina and Alabama mutually rank 80th or worse in plays of at least 20 yards allowed, while they are both outside the top 125 in College Football Data’s advanced defensive explosiveness metric, which measures the average PPA allowed per successful play from the opposition. In other words, both teams allow massive plays that often lead to points for the opposition, which is key for our over. Conversely, on the other side, both offenses are top-35 in plays of at least 20 yards; LaNorris Sellers and Keelon Russell both like to take shots down the field.
Tackling was a massive issue for South Carolina against Mississippi State, as the Gamecocks missed 14 of them according to PFF. Alabama shares similar issues; the Tide rank 99th in the FBS in tackling per PFF after missing 13 last week against FSU – who scored 36 points with a turnover-prone quarterback. Missed tackles will undoubtedly lead to points in this game, as both offenses have two running backs that currently rank top-15 in the SEC in missed tackles forced. Not to mention, the Gamecocks and Tide both have dual-threat quarterbacks that are extremely fast and can take it to the house at any moment. Plus, Sellers and Russell have already combined to force 14 missed tackles themselves, while both have a touchdown run of at least 55 yards this season.
The cherry on top is the kickers. Alabama’s Conor Talty is perfect on his eight field goal attempts, four of which have been between 40 and 49 yards. Meanwhile, South Carolina seems to have found a legitimate leg in Malik Orsan, who is perfect on his four attempts this year, including two from further than 50 yards last week. Expect a high-scoring affair in Tuscaloosa on Saturday.
South Carolina vs Alabama prediction: Over 53.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 54.5 (-115).
