This is more a fade of James Madison than anything else because the Dukes have become a broken slot machine. We can discuss JMU's numbers all day. The Dukes keep winning, they look like a Group of Six contender yet again, and they're covering at an impressive clip. Apparently, all you have to do is back James Madison and expect to get paid four hours later. Rinse, wash, repeat. If only it were that simple, even when it appears that way.
The Dukes are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games, 6-1 against the number this season, and have won five of their seven contests by at least 13 points. With every cover they manufacture, however, the number becomes increasingly inflated as the market adjusts to their success. At some point, the Dukes have to normalize. And that's where Appalachian State comes in. The Mountaineers struggled to get past a winless Charlotte, lost a rock fight against a then-coverless Old Dominion team and needed a field goal to squeak out a win against Coastal Carolina most recently. JMU, meanwhile, dropped 87 in September on one opponent. Against that backdrop, laying 10.5 points with JMU looks almost too easy. But that's precisely the problem. If the Dukes' stock weren't so inflated, we would probably be looking at a number closer to a converted touchdown. Instead, we're paying a premium for their recent success. That makes JMU prone to an overlay as far as I'm concerned. I'll take the inflated points and dare the Dukes to beat the swollen number.
James Madison vs Appalachian State prediction: App State +10.5 (-104) available at time of publishing. Playable to +10.
