Arizona has rattled off four convincing wins since a road loss against the now #2 BYU Cougars behind an electric passing offense. Led by veteran QB Noah Fifita, Arizona ranks top-15 nationally in both passing yards per game and passing efficiency. When it comes to a two-possession spread like this, the importance of sustaining drives is heightened. The Wildcats hold a top-five third-down conversion rate among FBS programs and face an Iowa State defense that has struggled to generate pressure on passing downs, posting only nine sacks in six games.
On the other side of the ball, creating pressure is an area in which Arizona’s defense has excelled. The Wildcats have 19 sacks in the same time frame, and I expect Iowa State QB Jaylen Raynor to be rattled by the front seven. Raynor hasn’t had the hottest start to his first season with a Power Four program, and he’s losing weapons left and right; Iowa State has lost four of their top six wide receivers entering the season due to injury. While Arizona isn’t commonly described as “elite,” Iowa State has struggled against superior competition, most recently being outgained by more than 300 yards against BYU. With all things considered, I’ve got the Wildcats covering at home.
Iowa State vs Arizona prediction: Arizona Wildcats -9.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -10 (-105).
