Hawai'i vs Arizona State Prediction, Odds and NCAAF Picks for Saturday, 10/10/26

This business has a short memory. Remember when Hawaii entered Week 0 as a dark horse to win the Mountain West and potentially threaten for a G5 bid to the College Football Playoff? That hyperbole and narrative did exist. I remember it distinctly because that kind of hype helped make the Rainbow Warriors attractive, catching only 4 points at Stanford back in late August. The Cardinal won by 10 and covered, but Hawaii threatened throughout before a late scoop-and-score ultimately put the game out of reach in a bad beat for Warriors backers. The market subsequently forgave the Bows until UNLV ran them over the following week. Since then, Hawaii has disappeared from the radar. Their only victory came against New Mexico State in Honolulu, while the Warriors remain winless on the mainland. That influences what we see here.

Arizona State represents Hawaii's most daunting road assignment yet, but asking the Sun Devils to cover 20.5 points immediately after surrendering 55 to Baylor is another matter. I have difficulty laying this kind of lumber with a defense that just demonstrated how vulnerable it can be. There's also a significant situational component. Arizona State travels to Lubbock next week for a huge showdown against Texas Tech. If the Sun Devils establish a comfortable advantage against Hawaii, there's little reason to keep their foot down with that game looming. ASU can pull their starters, and that leaves the backdoor open. However, because Hawaii's stock has cratered, we get them at an enhanced price here. I'll take the forgotten Bows plus the points.

Hawaii vs Arizona State prediction: Hawaii +20.5 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable to +20.