Let's not pretend Louisiana-Monroe has much appeal here. The Warhawks are 1-7, have struggled mightily throughout the season and are arguably among the weakest teams in FBS football. However, that's precisely why we're getting two touchdowns and a hook. Arkansas State is a .500 team that has been decent at home and against an opponent like ULM, I understand why the Red Wolves are favored. What I don't understand is why we're being asked to trust them to win by more than two touchdowns. That's a considerably different proposition.
Arkansas State has demonstrated that it can win football games, but it hasn't exactly made a habit of putting opponents away. The Red Wolves needed a narrow three-point victory against Kennesaw State, while their defense surrendered 56 points to South Alabama and another 32 to Georgia State. That's hardly the profile of a team I'm comfortable laying this much lumber with. Ostensibly, Monroe hasn't given bettors many reasons to trust it either, but we're not asking the Warhawks to win this game or even necessarily make it competitive throughout. We're simply asking them to stay within two touchdowns against a defense that has shown itself vulnerable. This is a spot where you take the points with the Hawks or you pass.
Louisiana-Monroe vs Arkansas State prediction: ULM Warhawks +14.5 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable to +14.
