While Air Force has historically held the advantage in this rivalry series, Army has dominated as of late, winning five of the last six meetings. However, there is plenty of reason to believe the Falcons can knock off the Black Knights on the road this time around. These squads have quite similar profiles, only Air Force is slightly better in the majority of key areas. Army ranks second in time of possession; Air Force ranks first. Army ranks 19th in EPA/play offensively; Air Force ranks eighth. These are just a couple of examples, but essentially Air Force has seen slightly better results playing a similar style as the Black Knights deploy.
While neither defense has been a world-beater, the edge goes to the Falcons. Army ranks 136th in EPA/play allowed among 138 Division I programs. Army has also been far worse at defending the run game, which should be a major factor in this matchup, given these programs hold the top-two spots in rushing yards per game. There is value in taking Air Force to win this one outright, but in a matchup likely to see long, drawn-out possessions, I’ll take the three-point cushion.
Air Force vs Army prediction: Air Force Falcons +3.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable down to +3.
