The Toledo Rockets had their most impressive win of the season last weekend. They handily defeated San Diego State 41-16 as only -2.5 favorites. Quarterback John Alan Richter led the team to victory by completing 16 out of 22 passes for 284 yards and three touchdowns. Toledo will look to continue their momentum this week against a Mid-American Conference opponent, the Ball State Cardinals. Ball State hopes to get back in the win column after back-to-back losses against Liberty and Kent State. With these teams' recent outcomes, this spread has ballooned from 13.5 all the way to 19.5 in favor of Toledo. The Rockets will be heavy favorites to gain their sixth straight conference win.
Saturday will be the first road game for Toledo in a full month, when the Rockets opened their season on the road at Michigan State. They fell short in that game, but looked formidable against a Big Ten opponent with a final score of 30-20. Since the loss, Toledo has outscored opponents 153-74, averaging over 50 points per game. They put a big number on the scoreboard against CCSU, Temple and San Diego State, while Georgia, Alabama and Florida are the only other teams in college football to score at least 40 points in every game in the last three weeks. The Rockets offense averages 468 yards per game with 305 of those yards coming through the air. Receiver Bryson Hammer will be a player to watch. Hammer received MAC Offensive Player of the Week for the second week in a row after recording 133 receiving yards and two touchdowns against San Diego State.
Circumstances will be different this week with Toledo playing on the road, but I don't believe Ball State will be able to slow down this offense. Under defensive coordinator Jeff Knowles, Ball State's defense has struggled, allowing 37.5 points per game. They surrender 453.8 yards per game, 254.5 of which come through the air, and they have allowed opponents to convert on third downs 47% of the time. When teams have reached the red zone against Ball State, they have punched it in the end zone a staggering 15 out of 16 times. If Toledo continues its offensive momentum, they should be able to get near this total by themselves.
Toledo vs Ball State prediction: Over 51.5 (-110) is available at the time of publishing. Playable to 52.5.
