I'll start off by saying that I honestly don't think Bowling Green should be favored against anyone. Let's not forget what happened on opening weekend when FCS Tarleton State came to town and asserted itself against the Falcons. However, Bowling Green's shocking upset of Miami Ohio will understandably excite takers and make it a distant memory, BGSU's curb appeal will rise as a result and be accentuated particularly against a Sacramento State team whose only victory came against FCS cupcake Mississippi Valley State. But the dynamics have completely changed. That's the key element.
Bowling Green went into Oxford as a double-digit underdog with nothing to lose and everything to gain against the Redhawks and the Falcons struck gold. Now, following that emotional upset, the Falcons return home in a known let-down spot expected to win and cover more than a touchdown. That's a role I'm not convinced they're built to excel in. And furthermore, Sacramento State's record requires context. The Hornets have faced Eastern Michigan who ended UMass' undefeated run, playing competitively in Ypsilanti before losing by 11. The Hornets also faced a 4-1 Fresno State team that played USC tough; an undefeated North Dakota State that many feel should be ranked; and UMass when the Minutemen were still undefeated. That's a tough collection of assignments. While Sacramento State may not inspire much confidence, compared to recent tilts, this could be its easiest test since Mississippi Valley State. Meanwhile, Bowling Green must transition from the hunter to the hunted in a natural let-down spot. That's a significant adjustment. There are enough ingredients here for an outright upset, but a touchdown plus the hook is simply too generous. Take the points.
Sacramento State vs Bowling Green prediction: Sacramento State +7.5 (-104) available at time of publishing. Playable to that number.
