One of the best games of the weekend comes in the mountains of Provo, where the BYU Cougars are set to host Notre Dame in a clash of unbeaten teams in a rare nonconference tilt in October for the hosts. This is a game that has been hotly anticipated, particularly for fans of BYU after the Cougars failed to make the College Football Playoff a season ago. Unfortunately for Kalani Sitake's team, I don't see a path for them to win this game given the edges Notre Dame holds on both sides of the ball. However, rather than lay the big number with the Irish, I'll target the Cougars team total instead.
Across the nation, Notre Dame is the team I have the fewest questions with at this point, and much of that is due to the defensive side of the ball. Simply put, the Fighting Irish are among the very best defenses in the country, and it's essentially a nightmare to throw the ball against this secondary (5th in EPA per dropback). Furthermore, the Irish also do a great job of generating pressure on the opposing quarterback, with Notre Dame sitting at third nationally in Havoc rate. That doesn't bode well for a BYU team that is going to need to provide Bear Bachmeier with time to throw, especially on late downs. The Cougars are already a poor passing offense, but they have been able to rely on their strong ground game in years past. However, with LJ Martin out of the lineup for the foreseeable future, that absence looms large against a Notre Dame defense that is ranked fourth in success rate allowed on the year.
Notre Dame vs BYU prediction: BYU team total under 17.5 (110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 17 (-110).
