Seeing this spread is jarring, but here we are. Miami is laying nearly 17 points at Clemson, where the Tigers, once upon a time, never lost. Considering the state of this team, it makes sense. The offense isn’t that good – it’s just been aided by its last two opponents in North Carolina and Cal. Neither the Tar Heels nor the Golden Bears could maintain drives or take care of the ball when it mattered most, while the Tigers did just enough to win both games.
Meanwhile, Miami is a perfect 4-0, though the Canes have not been tested yet. Still, they’re out-scoring their opponents 207-36. Yes, you’re reading that correctly, and yes, I tripled-checked it.
Clemson has an extra day to prepare for this game, but they also had to fly back from Berkley last weekend. Miami was chilling in southern Florida, while most of the Hurricanes starters logged less than a full allotment of minutes given the blowout nature of last week’s game. That’s a decent edge for Miami.
Also advantageous for Miami is the fact that Clemson freshman QB Tait Reynolds has not seen a defense quite like the Hurricanes yet. Clemson needs to find a run game to take pressure off him, but that’s unlikely to happen against a Miami run defense that sits top-25 in PPA per rush and rushing success rate, as well as second nationally in stuff rate and sixth in line yards allowed. Remember, this Clemson offensive line is completely reshuffled, and almost all of last year’s veterans are gone. It’s no wonder their offense ranks 124th in third-down conversion rate and 110th in yards per play.
On the other side of the ball, Clemson’s defense just isn't what it used to be. Is it still above average? Maybe? While the Tigers are 26th in PPA per play and 16th in points per scoring opportunity allowed, they’re outside the top 60 in scoring, outside the top 90 in total defense and outside the top 120 in multiple advanced rushing metrics. Not to mention, they rank 107th in passing downs PPA. So how exactly are they going to stop a Miami offense that sits first nationally in PPA per play, second in success rate, third in third-down conversion rate, and top-10 in a boatload of other advanced offensive metrics? And how are they going to stop this Miami rushing attack?
Betting on Clemson here is relying on the history of Dabo Swinney and the previous tendencies of Mario Cristobal choking away games the Hurricanes should win. If that’s your thing, by all means. However, I struggle to find much merit in what Clemson is doing right now. Is it really that hard to imagine another beatdown like we saw in Week 1 with LSU? Darian Mensah played at and beat Clemson last year with Duke, against a better Tigers defense, so he won’t be intimidated by the moment. I also am of the opinion the Hurricanes got their bad half out of the way at Wake Forest a couple weeks ago. I expect them to stay locked in against a program like Clemson.
Miami vs Clemson prediction: Miami -16.5 (-112) available at time of publishing. Playable to -18 (-110)
