In a vacuum, this game is pretty much a toss-up, which makes taking the points with New Mexico State the most valuable position. At first glance, the home-road splits favor FIU. The Panthers have won both games at home this season, while New Mexico State remains winless on the road. But we need to examine the context. The Aggies' road losses came at Florida State, Hawaii, and against arch-rival New Mexico. The Lobos look like a legitimate threat in the Mountain West. Florida State is a Power 4 institution with a fabled environment. And all know that making the trip to the Islands is perilous for anybody who comes up against the Rainbow Warriors in Honolulu. Comparatively speaking, Florida International represents a considerably easier assignment.
Who have the Panthers beaten at home? FCS Long Island University and Buffalo, a MAC program carrying a preseason win total of 6.5. That's hardly a murderer's row. Meanwhile, New Mexico State arrives after a dominant exhibition against Western Kentucky and should absolutely be classed as a viable opponent here. The fact that oddsmakers initially made the Aggies less than a touchdown underdog suggests they understood that. The market immediately pushed the number higher, and we're now getting an additional point in our back pocket. I'm not convinced we'll even need it. New Mexico State can win this outright, and the bold can certainly consider the Money Line as they are offered at +199 at some outfits at the time of writing. However, I'll take the live dog with the points in a game they can win outright and comfortably come in under the number.
New Mexico State vs Florida International prediction: New Mexico State +6.5 (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable to +6.
