In the current landscape of college football, revenge angles may not carry as much weight as they used to. The transfer portal somewhat diminishes the hype of these spots, so I’m not putting a ton of weight into that angle ahead of this matchup between Virginia and Florida State in Tallahassee. If you remember, the Cavaliers escaped with a 46-38 win in double overtime last year after the Seminoles fought back from an early 14-0 deficit, but the quarterback matchup is completely different this year, while both offenses are outside the top 55 in returning production. Sure, the coaching staff remembers this game, but I’d think Mike Norvell and company want to win this game more to preserve their jobs than to exact revenge on the Cavaliers. It’s not like the Seminoles just missed the ACC Championship; they went 5-7 last year after going 2-10 the year prior.
I show a ton of value on the Cavaliers in this spot. Could my numbers be flawed? Sure they can, but what has Florida State done to merit any trust? Ashton Daniels is a turnover-worthy play waiting to happen, while this defense is 126th in third-down conversion rate allowed and 131st in yards per play allowed against FBS competition. The ‘Noles defense is also 125th in standard downs PPA outside of garbage time, which isn’t ideal considering UVA has shown an elite ability to stay ahead of the sticks – sitting second nationally in standard downs rate and 10th in standard downs PPA. Despite losing J’Mari Taylor, this is still a top-20 rushing attack in terms of PPA and success rate outside of garbage time, and the Semolines have struggled in those areas defensively, while they sit 91st in stuff rate.
This is Virginia’s first true road game and second game away from home after they lost outright as a double-digit favorite in a neutral-site game against West Virginia. That alone will prevent me from making this a five-star best bet. However, I still haven’t seen enough from Florida State to stop betting against them. Because my numbers agree, I’m in on Virginia at a very affordable money-line price. If it's too juicy for you, play the Cavaliers up to -3.
Virginia vs Florida State prediction: Virginia Cavaliers ML (-135) available at time of publishing. Playable to -150 or -3 (-110).
