One of the games with the most uncertainty this weekend is the Oregon Ducks vs the Illinois Fighting Illini. The Ducks are off to a struggling start for a team widely believed to be a playoff contender. With losses already to UCLA and Oklahoma St, and a very narrow escape against Nebraska last weekend, the Ducks have looked shaky each week. With Ohio St still on the schedule, they cannot afford another loss. Illinois is 1-2 in conference play, losing to Ohio St and Purdue before winning in overtime at Michigan St two weeks ago. With all the uncertainty this week, I think the game total under 50.5 is the best play in this game.
Both teams have significant unknowns at quarterback. For Oregon, Dante Moore remains in concussion protocol, while Dylan Raiola has certainly not played like the best backup in the country. Then there is the Evan Stewart DUI story that will likely have him missing the game. On the Illinois side, they lost starting QB Katin Houser to a hand injury a couple of weeks ago. He is expected to miss this week, which gave the Illini the off week to coach up the freshman backup. With all that uncertainty, I expect some conservative playcalling and decision-making, and for all the other troubles Oregon has had, their defense is not one of them—they have held UCLA and Nebraska both under 20 points. I expect more of a grind here, unless better information comes out closer to kickoff.
Oregon vs Illinois prediction: Under 50.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to under 48.5.
