Arguably the biggest game of the entire season in the Big Ten comes on Saturday between the Ohio State Buckeyes and Indiana Hoosiers. Both teams look like they should end up in the College Football Playoff for yet another season, but neither side looks anything close to what we saw a season ago. In the case of the Buckeyes, they already have a loss to Texas that is not exactly aging well, while the Hoosiers are undefeated but haven't exactly looked impressive in doing so. With that in mind, it's difficult to back either side in a game of this magnitude, so I'll be targeting the total instead on Saturday.
A season ago, we saw these teams take on each other in the Big Ten title game, and that game was a defensive struggle of the highest order. In fact, there were just 23 combined points in that contest, and I'm anticipating a similar script this time around. Indiana is no stranger to lower-scoring games this season, and the Hoosiers are clearly led by their excellent defense (13th in yards per play, 15th in success rate allowed) that is surrendering just over 18 points per game in Big Ten play to this point. On the other side, Ohio State's tendency in big games this season has been to grind out scoring drives and lean on its defense to make plays and get stops when it needs to. I expect the clock to be running early and often in a game where both teams should keep things pretty close to the vest early on. At the key number of 51 — one of the biggest key numbers in totals — I can only look toward the under.
Indiana vs Ohio State prediction: Under 51 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -120.
