A week ago, we had a terrific situational spot on our hands in the SEC and the letdown spot of the week now comes to us in the Big Ten in a matchup between Ohio State and Iowa. Having already dropped a game to Texas a few weeks back, the Buckeyes certainly need to win nearly every game remaining on their schedule in order to make the College Football Playoff, and they'll certainly be favored to do so. It's hard to say Ohio State is "undervalued" nationally at the moment, but Ryan Day's team feels like its flying under the radar compared to their usual standards. On the other side, the Iowa Hawkeyes are fresh off a miraculous victory over Michigan at the Big House, which is easily the biggest win the program has had in nearly a decade. With that in mind, we're now getting Ohio State at a bit of a discount at Kinnick Stadium on Saturday.
Simply put, it's going to be very challenging for Iowa to score in this matchup. The Hawkeyes offense is not exactly potent, as they're currently 93rd in opponent adjusted EPA per play (Game On Paper) and have only scored a combined 36 points in two games against FBS competition. It's not like we saw Hank Brown and company light it up against Michigan last week, and what was more concerning was Iowa only ran the ball for 58 yards against a Wolverines front that is solid but certainly weaker than what the Hawkeyes will see this weekend. To make matters worse for Kirk Ferentz's side, Ohio State is coming off a fairly middling performance at home against Illinois, in which the Buckeyes failed to cover as heavy favorites. This is a showcase game for Jeremiah Smith, Julian Sayin and a program that has dominated Iowa in recent meetings, and I don't expect anything different this time around. Look for Ohio State to start fast and force the Hawkeyes to get out of their comfort zone in a game that could snowball pretty quickly.
Ohio State vs Iowa prediction: Ohio State -13.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to Ohio State -14 (-115).
