The UCF Knights head to Lawrence to face the Kansas Jayhawks on Saturday afternoon in a battle between two teams in the bottom half of the Big 12 standings. The Knights are 2-3 in conference play, and things were looking good after a huge home upset of BYU. But as is so often the case, they had a massive letdown and got smoked by Baylor in the following game. As for the Jayhawks, they blocked a field goal to beat Baylor two weeks ago, then were unable to hold a lead at TCU last week. They are now 1-4 in conference play. I like the Jayhawks to win, but I think the better play in this game is the game total under 44.5.
UCF has lost 12 straight road games now, and they lost to Kansas at home last season. They also have a quarterback issue to solve, as their starter got injured, the backup played well, the starter got healthy, and then the backup fell apart last week. Regardless, the Knights will lean heavily on their run game, which often eats the clock and shortens the game. Kansas also has a quarterback issue; their starter missed last week’s game and is questionable this week. This sure feels like the kind of spot where both teams will make safe playcalling decisions, choose to play field position where they can, and maybe even settle for field goals when the opportunity allows. This feels like a 24-20 kind of spot.
UCF vs Kansas prediction: Under 48.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 45.5.
