This is a classic example of recency bias meeting a market that's playing results rather than ingredients. Consider what we've seen from Delaware recently. The Blue Hens won on the road at Western Kentucky last week after having previously hung 61 points on Missouri State in a blowout. Both these games were primetime spots mid-week, so plenty of folks have been paying attention. As a result of these results (yes, pun intended), the Hens are now laying a short number on the road against a Kennesaw State team sitting at 2-6. But here's my question: had Delaware lost at Western Kentucky or not looked so unstoppable against Missouri State, would the Blue Hens even be favored here? I doubt it.
What if Kennesaw State's record looked considerably better? Where would we stand presently? The Owls certainly could have had a better record considering that the Owls suffered bitter and narrow defeats against Jacksonville State, Arkansas State and Missouri State. That last result is particularly interesting because Delaware's demolition of Missouri State once again enters the chat and only enhances the perception that the Blue Hens are substantially better than Kennesaw State. But football doesn't work that way. The Owls have been competitive enough to suggest their record doesn't tell the whole story, while Delaware's recent performances have made the Blue Hens considerably more appealing to the betting public. That's the disconnect I'm looking to exploit. Take away the recent results and I believe Kennesaw State should be favored at home. Thus, I'll back the Owls outright.
Delaware vs Kennesaw State best bet: Kennesaw State Owls +110 (ML) available at time of publishing. Playable to +101.
