One of the biggest games of the week comes in the ACC, where we'll see Louisville host SMU in what could be a de facto ACC title elimination game come November. Both of these teams have clearly established themselves as second-tier contenders in the conference, and the margins in this game should be razor thin — as evident by the very short line we're seeing (Louisville -1.5 at most outlets). Instead of taking a side, I'm more interested in backing the over in a game that should feature plenty of offense, lead changes and momentum swings.
SMU has struggled to cover spreads on the road in recent seasons, but the Mustangs are no stranger to points in any setting. Kevin Jennings and this offense have been very effective through the first two weeks of the campaign, including putting up 585 yards of offense on Florida State in Week 1 — a result that would've looked a lot more lopsided if the Mustangs didn't turn the ball over four times inside the Seminoles 40-yard line. Louisville's defense showed some real flaws against Ole Miss in Week 1, and the SMU offense has been dominant on third downs and with generating explosive plays consistently. I'm expecting a 30-point effort from Rhett Lashlee's group in this spot, and Louisville's offense shouldn't be far behind. The Cardinals have already proven to be a dangerous unit on the ground, and Lincoln Kienholz should be ready to take the next step after his excellent second half against Ole Miss. Add in the fact that this should come down to the final few possessions, and it feels like a shootout is in the cards on Saturday.
SMU vs Louisville prediction: Over 58.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 59.5.
