The calendar is the anchor. Louisville's schedule runs Ole Miss, Villanova, SMU, Wake Forest, at NC State, Florida State. Saturday is the soft week in that run, at noon, seven days after the biggest win of Jeff Brohm's season, with a trip to Raleigh waiting the following Saturday. Wake played Friday and has had eight days off, while Louisville has had seven. I do not need Louisville to lose to win this bet, I need them to be simply ordinary for a quarter.
The mechanism is Louisville's defense, which is why this can stay close, even with Gio Lopez short of full speed. The Cardinals rank 108th in scoring defense and 113th against the pass, while they gave up 41 points to Ole Miss and 31 to SMU. Lopez threw for 312 yards and three touchdowns on Miami's defense. The honest counter is that he hurt his hip via seventeen hits and five sacks, hobbled late against Miami. For what it's worth, Dickert's stated priority this week is protecting him. If he cannot move, this pick is in trouble.
Louisville is the better team and I am not arguing otherwise. What I am arguing is that 12.5 is a lot for a favorite whose defense has allowed 31 or more in two of three games. The market opened this at 13.5 and came to 12.5 by Sunday, and it has sat there since. It is not moving my way any further. I would take it now rather than wait for a 13 that is not coming.
Wake Forest vs Louisville prediction: Wake Forest +12.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to that number.
