Texas A&M vs LSU Prediction, Odds and NCAAF Picks for Tomorrow

Both #23 Texas A&M and #10 LSU are coming off losses entering this weekend’s top-25 matchup, one that has featured a ton of line movement. The market has adjusted drastically following the Week 3 results of the Aggies losing as 17-point favorites at home, sending LSU from -2.5 to beyond the key number of -7. The over/under has also dropped drastically from 56.5 to 51.5. It’s easy to see why the over/under is plummeting for this matchup schematically. LSU won’t have to defend superhuman, Heisman-caliber plays from Trinidad Chambliss this time around. The Tigers’ run defense in particular has been incredible, allowing only 33 yards per game and 1.2 YPC -- both top three in the nation.

Despite a pair of big wins to begin the year, the Aggies rank 90th nationally with only 5.1 yards per play on offense. I don’t expect much explosiveness against the LSU unit. On the other side, the Aggies’ defense has also been excellent. The run defense is a strength, but Texas A&M by far possesses the best third-down defense LSU has faced this season -- with opponents only converting 22.6 percent of attempts. While both offenses are capable of producing big plays in the right spot, this is not the right spot with two elite defensive units expected to control the tempo of this game. I’ll ride the line movement and take the under. 

Texas A&M vs LSU prediction: Under 51.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.