There is a lot going on here, so I don't know where to begin. I guess I'll start with the Thundering Herd. The market wants no part of them; they have become radioactive sewage. The Herd were last seen 10 days ago losing in Huntington to visiting Coastal Carolina as a 4.5-point choice. Marshall fell 27-21, diminishing their ATS record to 1-5 and dropping their last 3 ATS decisions. Even more disconcerting were the turnovers. Marshall committed 6, yes, you read that right, 6 turnovers against the Chanticleers and fell behind by big margins early. Marshall was down 27-0 early and anyone holding a Marshall ticket knew they were holding dead water. Despite that, Marshall still found a way back into the contest and created over 500 yards of offense. Two of the turnovers incidentally occurred inside the red zone, which in itself is at least 6 points off the board for the Herd. But all that gets washed away in the undertoe, especially with a team of USA's profile.
The Jags were last in action nearly a fortnight ago on the road at Arkansas State. South Alabama was a 3.5-point pup and an attractive underdog that many liked outright to win. USA delivered in a 56-49 shootout, where the Jaguars led by 21 in the final quarter before the Red Wolves drew close in the end. Put all these ingredients together and the market is going to double down here on USA, but this is their second road game (albeit with a bye in between) and they are expected to win. That's a tough assignment for a team with a defense as high of a pitch count as the Jaguars. While Marshall's defense has its own vulnerabilities, I am not asking the Herd to win by margin, I am just asking them to win. That's the play here.
South Alabama vs Marshall prediction: Marshall ML (+144) available at time of publishing. Playable to +135.
