College football fans will be treated to a ranked Big Ten matchup on Saturday when the Iowa Hawkeyes hit the road for the first time to play the Michigan Wolverines in Ann Arbor. Both teams are undefeated through three games, showcasing defensive excellence along the way. For what it’s worth, Michigan has won and covered in four straight meetings with Iowa, but the last time they played was three years ago in 2023 – the year Michigan won the title.
This time around, however, things are a bit different. The Wolverines are outside the top 60 in PPA per play (excluding garbage time) and 80th or worse in success rate, points per scoring opportunity and standard downs PPA. They also haven’t taken very good care of the ball, as they sit 99th in turnover margin per game and 102nd in penalties per game. To add insult to injury, quarterback Bryce Underwood has six turnover-worthy plays, and his 7.6% turnover-worthy play percentage is among the eight worst in the nation among qualified quarterbacks per PFF. Furthermore, he has just one big-time throw.
The Wolverines haven’t been the most efficient when running the ball, either. They sit 66th in PPA per rush, as well as 110th in rushing success rate. Not to mention, they are outside the top 50 in line yards, so how are the Wolverines going to get a push against an Iowa defensive front that is top-20 in stuff rate, line yards allowed, PPA per rush allowed and rushing success rate allowed?
With two teams outside the top 90 in pace, this projects to be a low-possession game, and considering neither defense has given up more than 2.6 points per scoring opportunity outside of garbage time, the points are that much more valuable with the underdog. Given their struggles on the ground and with Underwood under center, Michigan doesn’t appeal to me when in the favorite role. They are better off in the underdog role, where they can muck up a low-possession game and win with physicality. Unfortunately for the Wolverines, the Iowa Hawkeyes have that physicality, too. Give me the Hawkeyes, despite the fact that this will probably be a very popular underdog this week. I power-rated this game more around four points than where it is now.
Iowa vs Michigan prediction: Iowa +5.5 (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable to +4.
