On paper, this under has a problem: both of UTEP's games this season went over this number. Look at who did the scoring before worrying about it. Oklahoma put 51 on UTEP alone, and Michigan managed 17 against that same Oklahoma defense a week later. Under 49.5 is at DraftKings at -105, the best number and price on the board.
Michigan's offense sets the ceiling. The Wolverines have scored 13 and 17 points in two games, rank 133rd nationally in scoring and 131st in total offense, and neither of their games reached 30 total points. Kyle Whittingham said Monday his offense is "more suited to be a little more heavy run," and Michigan has thrown just 40 passes all season.
UTEP will not supply the rest. The Miners gained just 198 yards in their only game against an FBS defense and never reached the end zone, and the 51 they scored last week came against Texas Southern, an FCS team. A run-first Michigan offense against a team that cannot move the ball produces long possessions and a running clock.
Michigan's defense lowers that ceiling further, allowing 11 points a game, and the Ann Arbor forecast calls for showers and thunderstorms through the kickoff window. The honest caution is the market. This total has risen from 48.5 to 49.5 since Monday, so it has leaned toward the over, and that climb is exactly why the best under number of the week now sits at DraftKings.
UTEP vs Michigan prediction: Under 49.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to that number.
