Kennesaw State is a deceptive 1-6, having lost 3 games by a combined 7 points. Flip those outcomes around and Kenny State is 4-3 with a 2-1 road record, and if that were the case, the complexion of this matchup changes considerably. Instead, the market sees a team riding a 6-game losing streak that hasn't won away from home. But two of those road defeats came by narrow margins against Arkansas State and Missouri State. The other was at #11 Tennessee. The resume isn't as a bad as it looks.
Middle Tennessee, meanwhile, is undefeated in Murfreesboro and has won 2 straight, including a shocking upset of FIU as a 10.5-point road underdog, last Tuesday. Contrast that with Kennesaw's latest outing, a 34-6 drubbing by Liberty on Thursday, and the Blue Raiders look awfully attractive. With that, the Floyd Stadium mystique is suddenly building too, with the Owls seemingly lined up as Middle's next victim. But let's re-evaluate. MTSU's three home victories came against an FCS opponent, along with Delaware and Nevada. The latter two were games in which the Blue Raiders were underdogs (even against Nevada), and they won by just a field goal and a touchdown, respectively. If the market were pricing the ingredients rather than the results, this would look much closer to a pick'em. That makes the Owls the value side. I'll take it a step further, the Owls not only cover but get off the snide. Kennesaw State outright.
Kennesaw State Owls vs. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders prediction: Kennesaw State +128 (ML) available at time of publishing. Playable to +120.
