The 15th-ranked Iowa Hawkeyes will travel to the Twin Cities this weekend to take on the Minnesota Golden Gophers in a Big Ten matchup. Iowa is coming off a surprising offensive outburst in a 41-24 win over Washington last weekend. The Hawkeyes’ defense set up their offense in great field position all game, and their running backs got whatever they wanted in their path to victory. Iowa ran the ball 38 times for 263 yards and 2 touchdowns. They averaged 6.9 yards per attempt. Minnesota is coming off a disappointing 41-13 loss on the road to Purdue. Purdue has been better than expected this season, but to lose by nearly 30 points with a chance to go 3-0 in conference games is certainly a letdown after Minnesota defeated Michigan in their previous week. If Minnesota wants to be competitive against Iowa, they will need a better running game. They only ran the ball 13 times for 27 yards against Purdue. This low rushing attempt performance is unlike the Gophers, but it could be hard to bounce back against Iowa’s defense.
During head coach PJ Fleck’s time in Minnesota, the Gophers have struggled mightily against Iowa. Fleck and the Gophers are only 1-8 against Iowa since 2017. When these teams met last year in Iowa City, the Hawkeyes ran over the Gophers 41-3 in a blowout. If the Gophers want to flip their fortunes, they will need to limit the ground game against Iowa. Last week’s defensive performance against Purdue felt like an outlier. Minnesota’s defense had a lapse in its overall successful season. They allowed 305 yards rushing at 6.5 yards per carry against Purdue. For the season, the Gophers allow opponents to run for 129.2 yards per game. Before Purdue, Minnesota’s defense held Michigan to 79 yards on 28 attempts, and Washington to 40 yards on 27 attempts. Iowa averages 194 rushing yards per game, but Minnesota has the personnel to limit explosive plays. If Minnesota’s defense can force long third downs, the Gophers rank ninth in college football with only 159.7 passing yards allowed per game, giving them the opportunity to get off the field.
I don’t like Minnesota’s running game against Iowa’s defense in this game, but I don’t think that will stop the Gophers from trying. Minnesota has only averaged 104.8 rushing yards per game, while Iowa has held opponents to 84.7 rushing yards per game. Quarterback Drake Lindsey has been solid this year, but he will be looking to limit mistakes against the Hawkeyes’ opportunistic defense. Overall, Iowa has the better team, but Minnesota could keep this game competitive on their home field, especially coming off a bye. With two great defenses, I see this game playing out as a battle for field position with plenty of punts to go around.
Iowa vs Minnesota prediction: Under 40.5 (-104) available at time of publishing. Playable to 39.
