Arguably the game of the weekend in college football takes place in the SEC on Saturday when Alabama heads down to Starkville, Mississippi for a date with Mississippi State. This game features two of the best quarterbacks in the sport, despite the relative inexperience of Kamario Taylor and Keelon Russell at the collegiate level. Taylor has took the college football world by storm, leading Mississippi State to impressive wins over the likes of Minnesota, South Carolina and Missouri. As for Russell, his numbers have been excellent (11 total touchdowns, ranked 7th in QBR) through four games against FBS opponents. The redshirt freshman was especially impressive against South Carolina a week ago, completing nearly 78% of his passes while tossing four touchdowns and adding another on the ground. Alabama has the better overall roster surrounding its star quarterback, and the odds reflect that gap — with oddsmakers pricing the Crimson Tide as favorites of nearly a touchdown on the road. But instead of taking a side in this SEC clash, I'll be looking at the total in this one.
These quarterbacks have combined for 26 total touchdowns through the first four weeks, and I don't see any sign of that production slowing down anytime soon. On one hand, this is certainly a step up in class for Taylor, but the Mississippi State offense is balanced (11th in EPA per play, 13th in success rate) and is going up against an Alabama defense that did surrender 36 points to Florida State — the best offense its faced to this point. The Bulldogs have yet to score fewer than 31 points in a game this season, so even a small step back in that department shouldn't change the high-scoring nature of this contest. On the other side, the Crimson Tide offense has been a buzzsaw, with Kalen DeBoer's group sitting at 7th in success rate, 19th in EPA per play and 11th in yards per play. Russell should keep things humming against a Mississippi State defense that is 70th in success rate allowed and 80th in EPA per dropback allowed (Game On Paper). As long as both teams are able to finish drives with touchdowns at a decent clip, this one should get into the 60s.
Over 59.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 60.5
