Auburn as a road favorite? That's not a position I'm particularly interested in supporting. The Tigers are 1-2 away from home, and while they did knock off Georgia as a 19.5-point underdog, they've also struggled at Tennessee, losing by 10, and were hammered by Ole Miss in Oxford. Now they're being asked to win in Starkville against a Mississippi State team whose season has admittedly completely unravelled. I appreciate why the Bulldogs have little appeal. Alabama splattered them, LSU beat them by 31, Oklahoma won in Starkville, Texas blew them out and a listless Vanderbilt added another defeat last weekend. But this is exactly when you buy low.
Let's not forget that Mississippi State was ranked earlier this season. The Bulldogs haven't suddenly become incapable of winning football games because they've endured a miserable stretch. We can talk about the Kamario Taylor situation, but this is about reading the line. Take away the debacle against Vanderbilt and let's say Auburn loses at Georgia like it was supposed to – suddenly the Cowbells are favorites here. That's how you find value. Also, there is plenty of motivation here for the Bulldogs, too. Beat Auburn and take care of Tennessee Tech, and Mississippi State becomes bowl eligible before it plays with house money in the Egg Bowl against Ole Miss over Thanksgiving weekend, which is practically a bowl game itself.
Mississippi State getting to a bowl is a win for the Bulldogs, and every game moving forward is a free roll for them. Put them in Stark Vegas with all those cowbells behind them and they are not a team to be spotting points against in that scenario. Auburn's victory at the Dawgs makes the Tigers more appealing, but their road performances hardly justify automatic confidence. I'm buying Mississippi State at its lowest point and taking them outright.
Auburn vs Mississippi State prediction: Mississippi State Bulldogs ML (+127) available at time of publishing. Playable to +120.
