The New Mexico State Aggies will take on the Missouri State Bears in a matchup of two Conference USA teams attempting to get back on track. New Mexico State has lost three of their last four games, and they have been outscored by Jacksonville State and Liberty 54-14 in their last two games. Missouri State has lost three of their last five games. In that stretch, the Bears are 0-3 on the road, but 2-0 at home.
Missouri State may be listed as the favorite for this game because of their recent success on their home field, but they enter with a glaring issue. The Bears defense has been one of the worst in college football. They rank 128th in the country with 427.2 yards per game allowed, and they are particularly vulnerable against the pass, giving up 250 yards per game while allowing opponents to convert 42% on third down. New Mexico State has the better defense, only allowing 351 yards per game. They have been better against the run, only allowing 137.2 rushing yards per game. They should be able to heavily limit a Missouri State team that only averages 124.3 yards per game on the ground.
The key to victory will be New Mexico State’s quarterback, Trey Heddon, and his ability to take care of the football. Hedden has struggled with turnovers in recent games, but he has a good opportunity against a Missouri State team that has a -1 turnover differential. Overall, I’m leaning towards New Mexico State to cover and potentially win the game on the road. The Aggies have the more capable defense and should be able to take advantage of Missouri State’s inability to consistently slow down opposing offenses.
New Mexico State vs Missouri State prediction: New Mexico State Aggies +1.5(-110) is available at the time of publishing. Playable at the ML(+105).
