There's an element of a must-win narrative surrounding Texas this weekend, but at the end of the day, rhetoric doesn't cash tickets. The question I have is whether the Longhorns can be trusted laying points on the road in a spot like this. My answer is no. There's a reason Texas isn't even being trusted to win by a field goal. The Horns are walking into a hornet's nest in Columbia, Missouri, against a Tigers team capable of matching their physicality, defense, and running the football.
While I appreciate that Missouri was mopped up by Ole Miss in its most recent debacle and Texas subsequently destroyed that same Rebels team the following week in Austin, results don't always commute. This is particularly the case when we're talking about different opponents, venues, and circumstances. And that's precisely where I believe the market is getting carried away. Texas has the bigger narrative with the urgency of winning and keeping its playoff ambitions alive. Once upon a time, this was the #1 team in the country. Missouri, meanwhile has the opportunity to let its execution do the talking. And if you think that the Mizzou can't be overlooked here, all I ask you to do is rewind back a month before when they beat Florida and were called a "placeholder Top 25 team". But here is the thing, the Tigers are sneak good and they don't even need to be spectacular here. They need to establish themselves physically, compete at the line of scrimmage, and make Texas earn everything it gets. In a place like Como, they can certainly do just that. The Longhorns may be the more fashionable selection but that doesn't make them the right one. I'll take Missouri outright to end Texas' season for intent and purpose.
Texas Longhorns vs. Missouri Tigers prediction: Missouri +128 (ML) available at time of publishing. Playable to +120.
