A lot of points are expected this weekend at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium when the North Texas Mean Green come into town to take on the Navy Midshipmen. North Texas is 2-0 in the American Conference and will be well rested after their bye weekend. The Mean Green have won four of their last five games and have scored 35 or more points in all five games. We will see if North Texas can continue their scoring streak against Navy’s heavy run-focused attack on offense. Navy is 1-3 in the American and has lost four of their last five games. They lost last weekend against UTSA 38-34 while allowing the opposing quarterback to throw for 359 yards and 3 touchdowns. Navy quarterback Jackson Gutierrez threw for 120 yards and two touchdowns. Most of those yards came on a 92-yard touchdown he threw to start the fourth quarter.
Both teams have proven they can move the ball effectively on offense, but they do it in different ways. North Texas ranks near the top of college football in both passing yards and total offense. Behind quarterback Tayven Jackson, the Mean Green have averaged 341.8 passing yards and 42.2 points per game. Navy’s option-based rushing attack has helped them average 300.4 rushing yards per game this season. If the Midshipmen continue to find success, it could shorten the game and limit possessions. Keeping North Texas’s offense off the field could be the most effective defense Navy can play. When the Mean Green’s offense does take the field, they could be in line for another big performance. Navy allows 247.7 passing yards per game this season, ranking near the middle of the FBS. We saw UTSA move the ball with ease against Navy, and now the Midshipmen are faced with an even more explosive offense on the other side of the ball. In the end, I am finding it difficult to bet against North Texas’ offense, even on the road. If the Mean Green can get ahead early in this game, Navy’s ground game may not have the power to bring them back.
North Texas vs Navy prediction: North Texas -2.5 (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable at -4.5.
