We have a pivotal ACC matchup on our hands in Raleigh on Saturday, as NC State is set to host Wake Forest in a game between a couple of teams that would be in prime position to make a run at a conference title game appearance with a victory. Both teams are trending upward in recent weeks, and you could certainly make the argument for both to win this game and steady the ship. Instead of focusing on a side here, I'll direct my attention toward the total in what should be a high-scoring affair between a couple of offenses that should hold edges over the opponent.
Last week saw NC State topple Louisville in a game that featured plenty of points and explosive plays, even in the rain. That theme of offense should carry over into this week's matchup, especially since the Wolfpack are going to need to keep scoring 30+ points to win games. Wake Forest has averaged over 36 points against FBS competition this season, and it's hard not to see Gio Lopez and company seeing consistent success against a struggling NC State defense that is outside the top 100 in success rate and EPA per play (Game On Paper). On the other side, the Demon Deacons defense has been decent, but most of that success came against middling offenses. When Wake Forest has gone up against the likes of Purdue, Miami and Louisville, the defense has surrendered an average of 32 points per game while looking very pedestrian in the process. NC State's offense struggled mightily against Virginia in Week 1, but CJ Bailey and the Wolfpack have looked like a completely different unit over the last four games — especially at home. With that in mind, I'll target the over in a game that could come down to the final few possessions.
Over 59 available at time of publishing. Playable to 59.5
