The Big Ten has a couple of marquee games in store for us on Saturday and one of the showcase matchups features the Indiana Hoosiers and Nebraska Cornhuskers in a game between a pair of unbeaten teams. The defending national champions have looked a bit worse than preseason expectations to this point, as Curt Cignetti's team has covered the spread just once over the first five games. On the other side, Nebraska is 5-0 but the Cornhuskers have not exactly played a great slate of opponents to this point. Both teams have made it difficult to trust them in this spot, so I'll be focusing on the total in a game that could feature more points than the market is projecting.
For starters, both of these offenses are pretty stellar across the board. Indiana has an excellent group of weapons at the skill positions, and the Hoosiers' offense has been very efficient thus far, ranking inside the top 10 nationally in adjusted EPA per play and success rate per Game On Paper. While Nebraska's defense is a top 30 unit in adjusted EPA per play and success rate allowed, the Cornhuskers haven't faced an offense that comes anywhere close to what they'll see with Indiana on Saturday. Furthermore, this is a defense that occasionally struggles to generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks, which could spell trouble against Josh Hoover and the Hoosiers' passing attack. On the other side, Indiana's defense just allowed nearly six yards per play to Northwestern at home, and Nebraska boasts a similarly efficient offense on the ground (ranked ninth in EPA per rush and sixth in rushing success rate). Ultimately, this game should get into the 50s, and I'll back the over as a result.
Indiana vs Nebraska prediction: Over 48.5 (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable to 50.
