The Air Force Falcons had a rare September bye last week to recover and refocus after a 38-32 home loss to North Dakota State that looked worse than the score depicts. Following that extended break, they will head to Reno to play the Nevada Wolf Pack, who are 1-2 SU after consecutive losses to FCS national champion Montana State and Middle Tennessee. In fact, Nevada scored just once against their FCS competition two weeks ago, and they followed that up with accumulating just 263 yards against a mediocre Blue Raider defense. The Falcons have controlled this series of late, winning six of eight outright, covering five in the process.
Going up against a service academy that benefits from an extra week of preparation, Nevada is going to have to be able to stop the run if they want to cover, much less win this game outright. That said, I have my concerns with this Wolf Pack run defense – a unit that sits outside the top 70 in a vast majority of advanced metrics including stuff rate, line yards allowed, havoc generated, standard downs PPA allowed and rushing success rate allowed.
If Nevada can’t stop the run, they will have to hope they can put together extended drives throughout this game to keep the ball out of the hands of the Falcons. The issue with that is the Wolf Pack sit 108th in standard downs rate outside of garbage time, while they rank 95th in passing downs PPA. Those struggles have been evident over the last two games, in which Nevada was just 9-of-26 combined on third downs. To add insult to injury, Nevada ranks 101st in total non-garbage time scoring opportunities, and they are tied for 99th in plays of at least 20 yards this season, so they aren’t really moving the ball down the field with much consistency.
Plus, Nevada has a -5 turnover margin if you include their game against Montana State, which is obviously a concern against a service academy team that prides itself on ball security and game control.
So, if the Wolf Pack can’t stop the run and can’t keep the Falcons off the field, their only option is to score consistently with Air Force, which is something I don’t trust to happen given their inability to consistently reach the opposing 40-yard line and how inefficient they are play-to-play. For reference, Nevada is 103rd in PPA per play and 95th in success rate despite a strength of schedule that ranks 118th by Sagarin, while starting sophomore quarterback Carter Jones has 10 interceptions and 14 turnover-worthy plays in his young collegiate career that includes fewer than 250 dropbacks. Give me Air Force in this one.
Air Force vs Nevada prediction: Air Force Falcons -5.5 (-107) at the time of publishing. Playable to -6.5 (-110).
