One of the biggest games in the Group of Six this season takes place in New Mexico on Saturday, when the Lobos are set to host North Dakota State in an absolutely massive matchup that has College Football Playoff implications. These are the top two teams in the Mountain West and I'm expecting a hyper-competitive game from start to finish under the lights in Albuquerque. I lean toward New Mexico on the side in this one, but I just can't get behind laying more than a field goal with the hosts. Instead, I'll be focusing on the total in what should be a defensive struggle on Saturday.
In a game of this magnitude, I generally tend to focus on the defenses — especially in a game where both stop units should hold an edge over the opposing offenses. On one side, North Dakota State's offense is a run-first operation, and while that was mostly successful earlier in the season, the Bison have struggled offensively of late. Adjusted for opponent, North Dakota State is down to 124th in EPA per play on the season, while sitting at 100th in EPA per rush and 105th in EPA per dropback (Game On Paper). That spells trouble against a New Mexico defense that is ranked seventh in EPA per play and second in success rate allowed, despite playing a tougher schedule of opponents to this point. The Lobos offense has been more efficient compared to the Bison, but North Dakota State's defense is still a top 20 unit in EPA per play and a top 40 unit in success rate allowed. With that in mind, I'll gladly grab the under at 41 or better.
North Dakota State vs New Mexico prediction: Under 41.5 (-112) available at time of publishing. Playable to 41.
