In-state bragging rights will be on the line Saturday afternoon when the New Mexico Lobos take on the New Mexico State Aggies, renewing one of college football’s oldest rivalries. The 116th edition of the Rio Grande Rivalry heads to Las Cruces with the Lobos looking to keep their recent edge over the Aggies. Considering the intensity of the rivalry, the question is: can New Mexico cover the double-digit spread, or will New Mexico State make things interesting on their home field?
New Mexico is 2-1 to start the season, coming off a 14-6 loss at Oklahoma. New Mexico’s defense is receiving a lot of love for this performance, holding a top SEC team to only 14 points on their home field. They were able to hold Oklahoma to 1.9 yards per rush and picked off John Mateer twice. Was this a dominating effort from New Mexico’s defense, or is Oklahoma’s offense doomed to being inept? Maybe both things can be true? New Mexico has one of the most experienced defenses in college football. The Lobos defense has either a senior or redshirt senior starting in 10 of the 11 positions. This defense can carry the Lobos to victories, and they will need similar performances all season with starting quarterback Jack Layne out for the season.
New Mexico’s quarterback play still holds a big question mark. Neither Toa Fa’avae or Luke Moga threw for more than 80 yards against Oklahoma. The game plan was to run the football. The Lobos threw the ball 19 times versus running the ball 38 times against Oklahoma. Overall, I think this will be the game plan moving forward. They will have to win games with tough defensive play and control the time of possession with their running game.
New Mexico has been one of the most impressive teams in the Mountain West to start the season, but I cannot trust their offense to cover a spread. I like their defense and running game to keep this game under the total.
New Mexico vs New Mexico State prediction: Under 48.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
