Western Kentucky has plenty of curb appeal here, but I believe it's for all the wrong reasons. New Mexico State's stock couldn't be much lower after consecutive losses to Hawaii and New Mexico, including last week's ugly 42-18 rivalry defeat. Meanwhile, WKU just demolished Mercyhurst 52-7. The Hilltoppers' other losses are easily forgiven considering Indiana and Georgia account for 3 of the last 5 national championships. But Mercyhurst is only an FCS team, and what about Nevada?
The Wolf Pack hung 48 points on Western Kentucky, exposing a defense that remains extremely difficult to trust. I'm not allowing one blowout of Mercyhurst to erase that performance. New Mexico State's loss last week also deserves context. 3 turnovers helped the Lobos build an insurmountable advantage and eventually prompted a quarterback change. Once Adam Damante entered, the Aggies looked considerably better, outscoring New Mexico 14-7 in the fourth quarter. Yes, the game was already decided, but that offensive improvement matters against this WKU defense. Both teams have beaten Mercyhurst, in fact. So I'm not interested in using the Lakers as our measuring stick. However, you will hear that the Lakers put up 14 on the Aggies. Big deal. I'm more interested in which team's weaknesses can be exploited here. If Damante provides NMSU with steadier quarterback play, the Aggies should generate opportunities against a Hilltoppers defense that can be easily shredded. Back State to get us home.
Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State prediction: New Mexico State -2.5 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable to that number.
