We have already seen what New Mexico can do when lined up against an opponent that it should overwhelm. The Lobos hung 70 on Mercyhurst, although that's easily dismissed as an FCS cupcake. More pertinent was last week's rivalry game, when New Mexico dropped 48 on New Mexico State. The Aggies are comparable to UTEP in quality, which raises an important possibility: New Mexico might threaten this total by itself. The Lobos are -22.5 favorites. If UTEP contributes one or two scores, New Mexico likely needs somewhere around 30 to 37 points to justify that number. If we get the latter scenario, we have already cleared 48.5. I think New Mexico can score considerably more.
Outside its narrow loss to Oklahoma, the Lobos have scored at least 38 points in every victory. Meanwhile, UTEP allows approximately 6.0 yards per play, ranking 110th nationally, and averages more than 76 penalty yards per game. That's essentially spotting opponents a field goal or touchdown through self-inflicted mistakes. UTEP is one of the worst in the country in handing out free passes. Sure, UTEP looked dangerous against Michigan -- but this matchup favors New Mexico's offense. Give me another 38-plus from the Lobos and all we need is one or two Miners scores to do the rest. But again, I'll double down. UNM can get us to 49 on its own. This is a play teeming with value.
UTEP vs New Mexico prediction: Over 48.5 (+103) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
