North Carolina has scored at least 15 points in all three of its games, so every one of them would have gone over this number, and I'm paying a premium to take the under. It's -120 at FanDuel, BetMGM and BetRivers and -125 at DraftKings, which tells you the books already lean the same way I do.
Notre Dame's defense is why I'll pay it. The Irish are allowing 8.3 points per game, second in the country, and nobody has scored more than 13 against them -- with Wisconsin getting 13, Michigan State and Purdue 10 apiece and Rice none.
North Carolina's offense is scoring 23.3 points per game, 102nd nationally, and 35 of its 70 points came against East Tennessee State, an FCS team. Against TCU and Clemson, whose defenses rank 14th and 63rd, it managed 15 and 20, respectively. The bye is the counter, giving Bill Belichick two weeks to build a game plan, but it still has to get past a defense that has allowed just 33 points in four games.
The market has leaned this way all week. The full-game total has fallen from 50.5 at DraftKings over the weekend to 47.5 at most books, with Notre Dame laying 21 or 21.5. That combination prices North Carolina at about 13, right where the books have hung this number.
Notre Dame vs North Carolina prediction: North Carolina Tar Heels team total under 13.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to 13.5 (-130).
