The Illinois Fighting Illini will hit the road for the first time this weekend when they travel to Columbus to play the Ohio State Buckeyes, which will also mark the opening of their conference schedule. The Illini are 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS through three games, including an outright loss to Duke at home as a -6.5 favorite. Meanwhile, Ohio State is 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS after letting their opening-week game against Texas slip away on the road in Austin. In two home games, they’ve put up an average of 57.5 points per game against two MAC teams.
Despite facing a strength of schedule that ranks 115th per Sagarin, the Fighting Illini rank 86th in yards per play allowed against FBS opponents, while they are 95th in havoc generated, 105th in PPA per play allowed, 101st on standard downs PPA allowed and 100th or worse in both rush and pass explosiveness allowed outside of garbage time. That’s not quite a recipe for success against an elite Ohio State offense led by quarterback Julian Sayin, wide receiver Jeremiah Smith and running back Bo Jackson.
I’m acting under the impression that Illinois has to score in the 20s to have a chance at covering this number, and I don’t have much faith in that happening considering ECU transfer quarterback Katin Houser will be playing this game behind an offensive line composed mostly of non-FBS transfers. He previously was a Big Ten quarterback at Michigan State, where he made 14 turnover-worthy plays and just four big-time throws in 214 dropbacks in 2023. Obviously, he’s more experienced now, but he didn’t see any defenses close to the strength of Ohio State’s as a two-year starter at ECU, and he didn’t always perform well against the better defenses he saw.
So far this season, UAB outgained Illinois 413-332 in Week 1, while they converted 10 of 19 third downs. The next week, Illinois allowed Duke to rush for nearly five yards per carry even though everyone knew running back Nate Sheppard was going to touch the ball more often than not. Plus, Walker Eget threw three touchdowns against this secondary, which sits 80th in PPA per pass allowed and 95th in passing success rate allowed. With those performances on tape, I have a hard time seeing them offer much resistance against the Buckeyes.
Under Ryan Day, the Buckeyes have won and covered all but one Big Ten opener, and the lone non-cover was on the road. They covered their Big Ten home opener that year. Expect a focused effort from the Buckeyes, and for them to steamroll an overmatched Illini squad that, so far, has been a far cry from what we’re used to seeing from a Brett Bielema team.
Illinois vs Ohio State prediction: Ohio State -27 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -28 (-105).
