Texas Tech, sitting at #12 nationally, is without a true road test in 2026 and faces a potent Oklahoma State offense that has helped produce a 4-0 record ATS at home. The Cowboys have a clear advantage offensively, with a top-15 mark in EPA/play and success rate compared to Texas Tech outside of the top 50 in each category. This is a matchup nightmare for the Red Raiders’ defense, a unit that ranks 136th among 138 FBS programs with 287 passing yards allowed per game. Oklahoma State QB Drew Mestemaker has thrown the most TDs in the nation (29) and averages 329 yards per game.
Both teams have had their fair share of defensive woes, but I expect Mestemaker to have a field day against the shaky secondary. In terms of explosiveness, the edge certainly goes to the Pokes as well. Going into Week 11, Oklahoma State has more 20+ yard plays than any team in the country (64); the last time Texas Tech faced a team with a similar profile, they gave up 48 points in a close call at home as double-digit favorites against West Virginia. With all things considered, I’ll back Oklahoma State to remain unbeaten against the spread on home turf.
Texas Tech vs Oklahoma State best bet: Oklahoma State Cowboys -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -5.5.
