The Red River Rivalry is always one of the most interesting games on the slate when it arrives each year, and I think we could be in for a better game than what the market is projecting. Oklahoma's struggles on offense have been well documented, as the Sooners can't run the ball (ranked 129th in rushing success rate, 133rd in yards per rush), and that puts John Mateer and the passing game in negative situations on third and fourth down. However, there were encouraging signs against Georgia in Athens two weeks ago, with Oklahoma actually finishing with just 10 fewer yards than the Bulldogs, despite losing by four touchdowns. In fact, if it wasn't for three fumbles lost and a deflected interception, that game would've been a lot closer.
The reality is that Oklahoma's elite defense can keep it in any game, regardless of opponent. Heading into this week, the Sooners rank first nationally in adjusted EPA per play and success rate. More importantly in this matchup, Brent Venables' unit is tops in the nation in rushing success rate allowed, which is what Texas will likely look to establish on early downs so as not to put Arch Manning in third-and-long situations. While his struggles haven't been as catastrophic as the opposing quarterback, Manning has not looked the part of a national title-winning QB this season. With that in mind, it's reasonable to assume that the Texas passing game could be in real trouble against a Sooners defense that is also second nationally in EPA per dropback allowed. The total for Saturday's game continues to drop, and that only further increases the potential value we have with getting an underdog with this level of elite defense to say within one possession. I expect an ugly game, and don't be surprised if Oklahoma has a shot to win this outright in the fourth quarter.
Oklahoma vs Texas prediction: Oklahoma +8 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to Oklahoma +7.5
