At first glance, it seems apparent that Penn State will grab the Bulls by the horns on Saturday and enforce their will on them, but a spread of 41.5 creates a different conversation. The question, of course, is not whether Penn State will win, but whether they can maintain enough offensive urgency for four full quarters to build a margin approaching six touchdowns.
Penn State has started the season 2-0, but the results suggest a team that is more methodical than explosive. After opening with a 45-0 victory over Marshall, the Nittany Lions followed it up with a 27-9 win over Temple and failed to cover as a 24-point favorite. That performance showed the challenge of covering enormous lines, especially when the favorite shifts into clock-management mode or pulls their starters once victory is in sight.
Buffalo also has enough offensive competency to make a backdoor cover realistic. Although they’ve faced arguably weaker opponents, they’ve thrown five touchdowns through their first two games, averaging 20.5 points between them.
There is a historical argument to make as well. The last three times these two teams met (2007-2019), Penn State won all three meetings but never by more than 32 points, and Buffalo scored a minimum of 13 points in each of them.
Of course, both teams are very different today than they were back then, but in all three games, Buffalo went into State College and managed to score just under two touchdowns or more. It speaks to how they will likely approach Saturday’s game as an intuition.
The bottom line is that with Penn State potentially rotating reserves in the fourth quarter and focusing on staying healthy before conference play, I think Buffalo has a great shot at staying within the 41 points needed to cover.
Penn State vs Buffalo prediction: Buffalo +41.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +40.5.
