After starting 0-4 in Big Ten Conference games, the Penn State Nittany Lions are favored by a touchdown to get their first conference win against the Purdue Boilermakers. Purdue was projected to finish at the bottom of the Big Ten, but after wins over Minnesota and Illinois, the Boilermakers will look to improve their conference record to 3-2. Purdue's two-game winning streak was halted last weekend against Washington. The Boilermakers fell short at home 38-26 against Washington's backup quarterback. Purdue's quarterback, Ryan Browne, finished the game with 273 yards passing, one touchdown and two interceptions. The two turnovers were only his second and third of the year.
Penn State has lost four straight games. They last played on October 17 on the road against Michigan. The Nittany Lions dropped that game 21-18 after Michigan moved to their backup quarterback in the second half. Penn State's quarterback, Rocco Becht, finished the game with 267 yards passing, one touchdown and two interceptions. Both teams are coming off a bye heading into this matchup with additional time to prepare.
Penn State has historically dominated this matchup with Purdue. The Nittany Lions are 17-3-1 all time against the Boilermakers, but with two straight losses for Penn State on their home field, Beaver Stadium has never looked to be a more inviting place to go play. Penn State's struggles have grown from their inconsistencies on offense, specifically their running game. They are only running for an uncharacteristic 130 yards per game, which puts them 107th nationally in that category. Their inability to run the football has bled into their passing attack, making life more difficult than it needs to be for Becht.
The good news for Penn State is they still have a superior defense that excels against the pass, Purdue's strength. Purdue's offense averages 280 passing yards per game, ranking 21st in the nation. Penn State's defense only allows 141 passing yards per game, the fourth-lowest number in the country. They have held their opponents to only 18.9 points per game. In a strength-versus-strength matchup such as this, I tend to lean on the defensive side, especially when they are playing at home. Penn State should be able to hold Purdue's offense in check as they are hoping to win their first game of the season in what I project to be a low-scoring contest.
Purdue vs Penn State prediction: Under 54.5 is available at the time of publishing. Playable to 52.5.
