One of the more under the radar games on this weekend's loaded slate takes place in the Big Ten between Wisconsin and Penn State at Beaver Stadium on Saturday. Both of these teams underwent significant changes in the offseason, and there are certainly signs that these programs are on an upward trajectory following those improvements. Penn State has cruised through the nonconference portion of its schedule, but it's fair to question just how much those results matter given the very soft slate of opponents for Matt Campbell's team to this point. On the other side, Wisconsin held its own against Notre Dame for the majority of that contest, which gives us a solid data point in the Badgers favor. Both of their other two wins have been by comfortable margins, which sets up a game that could be closer than what the market expects.
To their credit, the Nittany Lions have started the season without a hitch in this new era, winning their first three games by a combined 105 points. However, wins against an awful Buffalo team and a Marshall side that appears to be significantly worse than what preseason projections indicated don't move me all that much. In fact, in the one game Penn State played against a team with a pulse, the Nittany Lions failed to cover against Temple in a game that they only led 10-3 at halftime. With that in mind, Wisconsin's offense (ranked 30th in EPA per rush, 21st in EPA per pass and 10th in points per quality possession) represents a real step-up in class for the Penn State defense (top 5 in success rate and points per drive). On the other side of the ball, the Nittany Lions offense has been highly functional with Rocco Becht under center. With that said, this is a unit that has been thriving on late down conversations thus far, which is not necessarily predictive of long term success. This is a game that should feature a lot of running and fewer explosive plays from both teams, so I'll grab the double digits with the 'dog in what could be a slower-paced contest.
Wisconsin vs Penn State prediction: Wisconsin +10 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
