Penn is 2-2 and averaging just 15.3 points per game. The Quakers scored seven against Lehigh, 10 against Dartmouth and needed a fourth-quarter comeback to beat Howard 24-20 last weekend in thrilling fashion. That's hardly the profile of a team I want to trust laying nearly a converted touchdown with. Especially against a team like the Lions who seemingly has a flare for living in the chaos. Columbia has won two games in overtime this season and they are scoring 27 points per game. The Lions have broken the 40-point threshold twice this campaign and boast a passing attack producing 313.5 yards per contest.
Analysts will be quick to point out that Princeton hammered Columbia 35-7, but that requires context. The Tigers had four explosives to score 21 of those 28 points; they weren't necessarily long-sustained drives as much as broken plays that went the distance. Take away those 3 plays and the Tigers in the aforementioned four scoring drives combined for 15 plays on 74 yards. That's 4.9 yards per play, which is superb for the Lions and revealing of what happened for Princeton. The good news is that the Quakers aren't explosive - so if the Lions keep things in the park and don't give up explosives, they will have a puncher's chance with their offensive capabilities.
With that being said, UPenn's defense has been excellent -- surrendering just 15.3 points per game, so Columbia will certainly have its work cut out. However, asking the Quakers to separate by a touchdown is another matter. This has all the makings of a mucky and competitive Ivy League contest where the Lions have every opportunity to stay within the number, if not win outright. For lack of a better term, this is a game that can go either way. I am happy to take the points and let the chips fall where they may.
Columbia vs Penn prediction: Columbia +6.5 (-102) available at time of publishing. Playable to +6.
