Utah State quietly pulled off an impressive victory over Fresno State last weekend, winning by a touchdown in a defensive struggle. That's the same Fresno State team that beat Oregon State, which had been in ranking talks and even the playoff conversation. Times have certainly changed. Now the Aggies travel to San Diego State as a -1.5 road favorite, and I can't help but feel this is reactionary.
Both teams are 4-5, and the total is sitting at just 41. We're expecting a rock fight, where points could be at a premium and every possession matters. But here's the detail that stands out. Utah State is 0-4 SU on the road. The Aggies might have demonstrated their ability to win a defensive battle against Fresno State, but doing that at home and winning ugly away from home as the chalk are two different propositions. Why should Utah State be favored here? If Fresno clobbered them, they would assuredly be a mid-range dog. One week of results doesn't make the Aggies trustworthy road chalk, especially against San Diego State, which is 4-1 SU at home. But the Aggies have covered in five of their last six and they are generating fanfare, which presents this opportunity that can't be passed up.
Utah State vs San Diego State best bet: San Diego State Aztecs ML (+110) available at time of publishing. Playable down to +100.
