Illinois State is ranked #13 in the country in the FCS polls, but I'm not convinced the Redbirds should be laying more than a touchdown on the road against Southern Illinois. After all, SIU is no slouch even though they are 3-4. They are receiving votes in the aforementioned FCS poll, and if they were ranked, this number would be inside a touchdown. That's instrumental here and informs the approach. Let's also kick some other numbers too. Illinois State is 0-2 in Missouri Valley Conference play. The Redbirds lost outright at Northern Iowa as an 18.5-point favorite before getting handled 31-14 by South Dakota State. While I appreciate that the Jackrabbits are the class of the FCS and top dog in the country, the Birds weren't competitive, and before that they stubbed their toe in a game they were supposed to blow out their opposition. All of this is hardly encouraging for a team to trust laying over a touchdown under the lights in Carbondale against a solid opponent. I appreciate that Southern Illinois hasn't exactly been setting the world on fire, either. The Salukis have dropped consecutive games against Youngstown State and South Dakota, but both opponents are nationally ranked in the top 10.
There's also some history worth considering. Southern Illinois demolished Illinois State 37-7 last season and has won three of the last four meetings. These teams know each other, and the upperclassmen on the Salukis have demonstrated they can compete with the Redbirds and the team overall won't be intimidated. Defensively, Southern Illinois has already intercepted 10 passes this season -- which is big because it gives it an opportunity to disrupt an Illinois State offense that averages over 38 points per game and also injects vigor into their fans at home. Those pivot plays in particular are big and can make laying points on the road even more of a challenge for the guests. The Redbirds may be the better team, but their recent conference performances hardly justify laying this kind of number away from home. I'll take the touchdown and the hook with the Salukis in a game SIU can assuredly win.
Illinois State vs Southern Illinois prediction: Southern Illinois +7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +7.
